Actually, I've formed a rather fun theory on who the killer is, but I'm not sure if I'm smarter than the show or not. I think I can say with all humility that I am. But I'm not sure. They've basically implicated Sheriff Dad, but I think that's way too easy. I'll be dissapointed if it's that simple. Sure, Abby might be evil Wakefield's Daughter and Sheriff Dad might have gone psycho over that, but it's also only episode nine. No way they'd really implicate him that early if it was true. Also, they've implicated him at the end of half the episodes, and he's basically the ultimate red herring.
I think it's "Too good to be true" Henry. And an accomplice, that I think is his would-be sister-in-law Shay. Or Trish herself. And here's why.
Henry grows up a poor kid living on Harper's Island where he romances Trish, the beautiful rich daddy's girl. Trish's Dad hates Henry for his pauper lifestyle, and Henry ends up resenting him. All his life, Henry has envied the Wellington's for their money and prestige, and never felt like he was good enough for Trish and resents the whole damned thing. But things are working out with Trish, so hooray. Now here's wherte my theory diverges into two sub theories. Sub Theory A: Henry and Trish start to talk about their future. They've been together for this side of forever, and see that continuing. But Henry and Trish know that Daddy Wellington isn't keen on their relationship, and that they probably can forget about ever keeping their hands on that fortune he has. He'd never really accept Henry as anything more than a brief distraction for Trish, accentuated by his constant attempts to break them up. So Henry and Trish, being exceptionally smart people, come up with a plan to get their hands on that money- murder Daddy Wellington. But they'd surely be caught- any first year Detective would put together their simple ruse to get rich quick if they just murdered him. Plus, he has a Wife and another Daughter who also get their hands on that money, so they would need to be dealt with, too. So how do we wipe out everyone ahead of us on the path? Well, it just so happens that He's best friends with a Girl who saw her Mother murdered years before on psycho death island. Hell, she already survived a horror movie. So they plan a wedding on the Island, which honestly is also kind of in poor taste. Even if they met there and all, it was still the site of a gruesome series of murders, including his best friend's Mom. So why else would they do it there? So they could do a big massive misdirection for their murder plot. You start killing your guests, and the whole time make it all seem like it's a psycho coming after Abby. When the dust settles, they're still alive and get married and get their hands on the Wellington Empire, and they look like shellshocked survivors and not murderers. Find a decent frame job(like Sheriff Daddy or Slightly Unhinged Young Brother JD) with all sorts of screwed up evidence that somebody just wanted to re-make the Wakefield massacre ending with Abby. Basically create a horror movie to cover up your crime.
Now sub theory B, which I think I'm more into, is slightly similar but massively different. In this sub theory Henry has an affair with Shay. Once again, they can't really get their hands on the money AND be together- Richard Burgi hates him enough already, if he dumps his younger daughter for his older daughter, you might as well forget it. Shay would also probably be excommunicated. Shay also realises her Husband is sleeping with her step mom, and daughter Madison is going to need a good life in the end. They hatch the same scheme as sub-theory A, except also needing to wipe out Trish. Once again, they end up sole survivors and miraculously fall in love(nothing brings people together like a violent trauma, and wouldn't it be lovely for the story to have a happy ending? A bunch of people died, but Henry, Shay and Madison become a happy rich family as a result. Silver linings.), and once again everybody thinks it was a psycho playing a sick mindfuck game on Abby, unless you just frame her. At the same time, Madison goes missing and actually sort of helps the killer. The whole show she's been seen as having something of a crazy streak, and has mentioned "her friend" who has been telling her information. Who could possibly take Madison without really frightening her? Who could get Madison to call Abby and make the threat? Her Mom, perhaps? Shay just tells Madison to blame Sheriff Dad, because it's all a game.
But every episode they seem to show me another reason why it needs to be Henry. In episode nine he beats the shit out of island asshole Shane, with a fury we have yet to see. He has all the background neccesary to pull it all off: He knows the island, Shay/Trish obviously have SOME money, and everybody loves him. It'd be easy enough for him to manipulate events(we also have seen how smart this guy is. I wouldn't be willing to throw the "I'm a psycho who is in love with Abby" motive at him, because Henry doesn't seem all that crazy, which I think makes it even scarier. Really, he's just a smart, rational guy who is commiting a complicated crime to get his hands on the money, best friends be damned. But he needs an accomplice, and the plan is worthless if he isn't married to a Wellington Woman....and if he's acting alone, it'd be pretty stupid to kill her Dad at the rehersal. He needs to be married to Trish or Shay in order to get his hands on the money...but perhaps he could be working alone and plans to seduce Shay or later marry Trish and then kill them off later, but that seems way more unweildy.
The only real problem with this theory is that usually Henry, Trish and Shay tend to be accounted for most of the time, and don't often end up alone. A third party(maybe their frame job, in the end...I wouldn't have been surprised if J.D. had been in on it, maybe they convinced him he'd look like a hero in the end and his outsider days could be put behind him, and manipulated him into commiting the murders...but J.D. was killed off, so it ain't him) could still be a possibility, someone they've convinced to kill everyone for them.
Boyfriend Jimmy isn't beyond my suspicions either, either as a third party or an alternate killer. It wouldn't shock me if he was in league with Wakefield or is even the son of Wakefield- they've made a big noise that Abby might be the kid, but perhaps it's Jimmy, pissed that he was denied a life he felt owed to him. He did mention in the flashbacks that his parents didn't really give a fuck about him...maybe Wakefield was his Daddy. Sure, it's unlikely that Abby would know Jimmy all her life and never meet his parents, but perhaps Jimmy didn't know yet. Or maybe it's all a lie and Jimmy is just going to do the "I'm in love with Abby and want to kill everybody to prove it" thing, which is honestly in my mind the most likely due to the fact that it IS a basic cable TV show, and cliches are far more likely a scenario than an intelligent, well thought out concept. But we'll see.
All the characters are getting interesting, and the show has kicked itself into a real horror movie feel. I am really looking forward to seeing how it all plays out. So congrats CBS, you beat me. For now. I like your stolen show. Bastards.
Hmm. Perhaps there is a little bit of that hate left to keep me warm...